Uncertainty in Fed rate cut


Last night Fed released its last meeting’s minutes. After reading it thoroughly i came to conclusion that even fed is having difficulty how much rate cut they should do. Next fed meet will be in September and there are high chances that we will see one more rate cut. But the way FOMC group is handling and cutting the rates in market is a concern. They dont have full majority or 100% members for rate cut.

Trade war between US & China is still a brewing issue which is far from resolved. Trump will start campaign for 2020 re-election within some months and he need this win desperately. We might see some harsh statements as we approach November this year. White House already delayed additional tariff on $300 billion chinese goods.

China already devalued their currency to fight tariffs and they indicated there will not be any truce in future. China may have shown aggression while devaluing currency. But this time US didn’t do anything except tweeting and whining on twitter. It seems finally Trump has understood this trade war is far from over and China has many aces in its sleeves.

Currently Dow Jones Index also stabilize after a shock of Yuan devaluation. Even though its nearly 1200 points down from its lifetime high , DJIA index is up 500 points from its last week’s low.

Currently comex gold is trading at 1501$. Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1492$. If trader breaks and sustain below 1492$. Then expect more pressure in xauusd till 1484$- 1475$.

Resistance in comex gold stands at 1510$. If trader breaks and sustain above 1510$. Then expect good rise in this precious metal till 1518$- 1526$.

Conclusion: Since yesterday precious metals trading in a narrow range. Today we have US unemployment claims number. These numbers would indicate jobs market in US. Stay cautious. Trend is flat to positive for today.

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