Gold Price Forecast
Gold price started from 4674 when market transitioned in ceasefire zone in April. Gold made low around 4365 and high around 4775 in this 2 months journey. Many statements were released and we have seen very wild moves in market. On surface it seems like its just 200$ zone in 2 months but there were many instances when market moved 50-70$ within minutes/hours. We have received few inflation numbers and inflation is raging all over the world. CORE PCE Index which is fed‘s preferred indicator for inflation is rising and it sits top since 2023 levels.
New Fed chairman took the helm and unlike assumptions , Trump said he is an independent candidate and he may do as he please. Markets were anticipating 4 rate cuts when 2026 was started as inflation was in control and economy was soaring. Current situation doesn’t suggest rate cut anymore , inflation if inflation keep rising we might be seeing rate hike. This may put gold is in difficult situation and we may test below 4000$ zone.
Technical Analysis on Gold Prices
Gold prices did not move anywhere in last 2 months. Its kinda consolidated and seems to be making a base. Gold needs a go ahead from Trump in order to reclaim its 5000$ crown. However many reports suggesting Trump might go for offensive before concluding war with Iran. If it happens then we may see gold prices testing below 4000$ even before rate hike starts.
Currently gold prices have a good support for upcoming months at 4100$. If close below this zone then expect 4000$ and 3500$ next in gold.
Good hurdle in xauusd chart stands at 5020$. This is a major hurdle for gold buyers to reclaim a new all time high. Iran war conclusion or rate cuts ( which is highly unlikely ) may push gold prices higher.
Conclusion
All eyes on Iran and US ceasefire or announcement of resumption/end of war. This is the main trend decider for gold prices. If war resumes then expect gold prices to crack and even go below 4000$. However if war concludes then we may easily go to test 5000$ and all time high. I will keep updating on my youtube video daily. Also follow me on Whatsapp / Telegram and X
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