Second Part of Year Gold Forecast ( July 2025 )
Its been a roller coaster ride since Trump took office in January 2025. He unleashed reciprocal tariffs in April which took market in deep stress. Trump’s tariff almost triggered recession and he had to repeal most of the tariffs for 90 days and had to resort to make deals.
By the time I write this , No country has reached actual deal and we are still waiting for any deal from any country , especially China. Trump unleashed unexpected tariffs on China , surprisingly China didn’t budge down and retaliate back in the tone which Trump understands. Few days back US and China reached a semi kind of deal , details are still scarce but it seems China and US made peace.
Many countries are still on the fence especially Japan and India which is are very big trading partner with US. Tariff deals will have good impact on gold prices and could derail every calculations which we will make in this post. ( I will update or make new post if this happens )
Gold prices almost tested $3500/oz which is a record. Gold prices was trading nearly $1800 just before Hamas attacked Israel. Since then Gold ( XAU/USD ) hasn’t seen many red days. US tariffs hinted a correction but as soon as Trump took it back. We are back in 3000$ zone due to uncertainties.
Israel also waged war with Iran in June which resulted in many casualties and almost a new all time high. However we did not see major pushback from gold prices nor from crude oil prices during the war. Crude oil and Gold shown some tremendous strength when Israel attacked Iran on 13th June. But after initial rise in prices we didn’t see any major jump or even rise despite both exchanged fire.
US also attacked Iran after few days , even that could not fuel gold prices and crude oil prices. It seems market is gauging or expecting peace in upcoming days/weeks. Trump announced cease fire today which could means we are finally getting peace.
Current gold prices are trading nearly 3300$/oz. Its in positive zone no doubt but as mention in my last week video analysis we have a good support around 3150$. Gold needs to close below this level in order to correct significantly. These weekly levels are dynamic and it changes every week. So make sure you follow my Youtube channel for weekly videos. Below 3150$ we may expect 3000$ zone and even deeper correction cannot be ruled out.
Conclusion: As I have been saying on my youtube channel daily. That currently we are in news based market and not on chart base or data base. Most of the moves are due to statements from Trump or any news regarding war. So keep an eye on geo political event. We might just getting peace after all.