Gold wild move as US Iran situation escalates

Gold forecast

Gold price fired from 1480$ to 1580$ in less than a week. Major move came from 1520$ to 1580$ when US killed one Irani Commander in an Air Strike. Gold price firing as middle east tensions rising. Iran situation escalated over weekend again when President Trump threaten to impose sanctions on Iraq.

Iraq parliament passed a resolution to vacate US army personnel from Iraq. Trump retaliated right after with sanctions and asked to give billions which they spent on infrastructure in Iraq. Middle east tensions is just one part . Iran also announced that its backing out from its 2015 original nuclear deal. This could also trigger President Trump and he may wage war against Iran just on assumption that now Iran will posses a nuclear weapon.

Chinese deal is still unclear and we still dont have how talks are going on. Iran tensions have curtail another important factor from market which is a big uncertainty on its own. We may see China news very soon once Iran tensions settles down in few weeks.

President Trump senate trial will be coming this month as well. Now senate also have one more reason to impeach president. Speaker Nancy Pelosi already urged congress to limit President’s war powers. This would also result in more tensions around the market.

Currently gold price is trading at 1573$. Xauusd is trying to calm down as its retracing back from 1588$ from its early morning highs. We may see some more retrace before more upside. However if things calm down in middle east then we may head up towards a bloodbath in gold price. Its a big IF to sell on these levels.

Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1565$. If trader breaks and sustain below 1565$. Then expect good pressure in gold till 1555$- 1547$.

Resistance in gold stands at 1591$. If trader break and sustain above 1591$. If trader break and sustain above 1591$. Then expect more rise in comex gold till 1611$- 1641$.

Conclusion Xauusd is driving purely on news. Avoid selling when markets are on highs. Watch levels extremely careful and place an extremely tight stop loss. Current trend of gold is positive. Dollar Index also in free fall mode since Friday. So keep an eye on dollar too.

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Market Holidays 2020

MCX Holidays in 2020

 

Sr.No Holidays Date Day Morning Session Evening Session*
1 New Year Day January 01, 2020 Wednesday Open Closed
2 Mahashivratri February 21, 2020 Friday Closed Open
3 Holi March 10, 2020 Tuesday Closed Open
4 Ram Navami April 02, 2020 Thursday Closed Open
5 Mahavir Jayanti April 06, 2020 Monday Closed Open
6 Good Friday April 10, 2020 Friday Closed Closed
7 Dr.Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti April 14, 2020 Tuesday Closed Open
8 Maharashtra Day May 01, 2020 Friday Closed Open
9 Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id) May 25, 2020 Monday Closed Open
10 Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti October 02, 2020 Friday Closed Closed
11 Diwali Balipratipada November 16, 2020 Monday Closed Open
12 Gurunanak Jayanti November 30, 2020 Monday Closed Open
13 Christmas December 25, 2020 Friday Closed Closed

NSE Holidays in 2020

 

Sr. No Holidays Date Day
1 Mahashivratri February 21, 2020 Friday
2 Holi March 10, 2020 Tuesday
3 Ram Navami April 02, 2020 Thursday
4 Mahavir Jayanti April 06, 2020 Monday
5 Good Friday April 10, 2020 Friday
6 Dr.Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti April 14, 2020 Tuesday
7 Maharashtra Day May 01, 2020 Friday
8 Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id) May 25, 2020 Monday
9 Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti October 02, 2020 Friday
10 Diwali Balipratipada November 16, 2020 Monday
11 Gurunanak Jayanti November 30, 2020 Monday
12 Christmas December 25, 2020 Friday

Muhurat Trading will be conducted on Saturday, November 14, 2020, Diwali * Laxmi Pujan .

Timings for Muhurat Trading will be notified by the exchange subsequently.

I have not included national holidays in indian markets holiday list such as Independence Day, Republic Day & Gandhi Jayanti

US Market holidays in 2020 – 2021 – 2022

 

Holiday 2020 2021 2022
New Years Day Wednesday, January 1 Friday, January 1
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day Monday, January 20 Monday, January 18 Monday, January 17
Washington’s Birthday Monday, February 17 Monday, February 15 Monday, February 21
Good Friday Friday, April 10 Friday, April 2 Friday, April 15
Memorial Day Monday, May 25 Monday, May 31 Monday, May 30
Independence Day Friday, July 3 (July 4 holiday observed) Monday, July 5 (July 4 holiday observed) Monday, July 4
Labor Day Monday, September 7 Monday, September 6 Monday, September 5
Thanksgiving Day Thursday, November 26* Thursday, November 25* Thursday, November 24*
Christmas Day Friday, December 25** Friday, December 24 (Christmas holiday observed) Monday, December 26 (Christmas holiday observed)

U turn from US driving volatility in gold & dollar

Gold volatility

Flip flop statements from US president causing high volatility and wild moves in gold & dollar index. Last week we had 2 contradict statements from President Trump. First he said he will think to deal with China in 2020 only that too after elections. This driven gold in higher gear and xauusd tested 1480-82$ zone.

After 2 days white house release a statement that talks are moving with positive progress and we are very closer to a deal. This dramatically crash the gold nearly 10-12$ from highs and settled gold in 1475$ zone. Then Friday non farm payroll numbers & underemployment rate surprised market which sent shockwave in gold. Comex gold crashed from 1479$ to 1459$ within hours.

Surprised numbers also contradicted with Wednesday’s ADP numbers which were showing negative growth instead positive. This also shows a lack of ability to forecast numbers by some of US federal reserve economists. They virtually have no idea what exactly happening in economy.

This week we have Fed decision on interest rate. Wednesday we will know the outcome as FOMC chairman will conduct a press conference after fed decision on interest rate. There are strong possibilities we wont see any rate hike this year. Fed chairman already cleared we might not see any changes in interest rate anytime anysoon as he is holding monetary policy till major changes in economy.

We also have elections in Britain which would clear the way for Brexit. We should have clarity on Brexit by this year end. Lets see if UK decides to leave Europe or wants to stay with Europe.

Currently gold price is trading at 1461$, Good resistance in gold chart stands at 1464$. If trader breaks and sustain above 1464$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1472$- 1480$.

Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1453$. If trader breaks and sustain below 1453$. Then expect good pressure in gold till 1445$- 1438$.

Conclusion: Currently gold is in weak zone but 1464$ hurdle is good trend reversal point. Follow technical levels.

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New lifetime high in Dow resulted in gold crash

Dow high resulted in gold crash

Dow again tested lifetime high by posting a good healthy 28088 in today’s chart. Since last week DJIA index posting new lifetime highs which is resulting pressure in gold. due to nature of relation between equity market and gold , xauusd is in under lot of pressure despite giving breakouts on chart. Major selling is from DJIA index & dollar index which is also in good positive zone as stock market continues to test new highs.

Last week FOMC chairman Powell mentioned there wont be any interest rate change if economy continue to rise with this kind of pace. In his testimony he stated that fed is satisfied with current growth and major factors such as trade war with China is not effecting US growth. After fed chairman testimony Wallstreet recovered from lows and continuing its winning streak since last week.

According to many analysts we may see more highs before we see some major fall. Gold is continuing to sustain despite new lifetime highs from Dow. We may see more highs in Dow as market is very optimistic due to holiday sessions but we may see some big decline after holiday period. I will cover this later in detail.

Last week China & US confirmed again that trade talks in progress and we may see fine print of an agreement between both countries very soon. But still we do not have any clarity regarding trade deal.  Trump’s impeachment also started which could influence markets in big time. If there is any heat on presidency then we may see depression & not recession this time. Stock markets around the world had a dream run since market recovered from recession of 2008. So expect a bigger recession this time if we goes into one.

For now gold is trading at 1464$. Good support in xauusd stands at 1458$. If trader break and sustain below 1458$. Then expect good pressure in comex gold till 1450$- 1442$.

Resistance in gold chart stands at 1471$. If trader breaks and sustain above 1471$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1479$ – 1487$.

Conclusion: Currently gold is in weak zone , avoid buying on these levels.

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Fed cut rate again to boost economy

Fed rate cut

FOMC chairman announced another rate cut of 25 bps last night to boost US economy. This sent already strong dow jones to test even more higher levels. S&P hit new lifetime high & dow jones also hovering near lifetime high. Market was expecting fed will cut interest rate so there was no major surprise from rate cut. However fed chairman signaled that this may be last rate cut this year. We may not see any further rate cut in December.

Gold bounced nearly 10$ & tested near 1500$ after fed signaled there may be no further rate cut this year. Earlier we seen better than expected US GDP numbers which boosted confidence of market and sent gold into weak zone. But fed again pumped the gold up into positive territory.

Tomorrow we will have non farm payroll numbers & unemployment rate . These are extremely important numbers to determine the real health of US economy. If numbers are weak than expectations then we may see gold testing new yearly high next week. However if numbers are better than expect then we may see 1450-1400 soon.

Another factor which is effecting gold is trade war with China. Even though both countries announced that trade deal is done, we did not see any fine print or any concrete evidence of current trade deal. President Trump & Xi Jinping may meet soon then only we will have clear picture about this trade agreement. For now picture is unclear.

Gold is currently trading at 1498$. Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1489$. If trader breaks and sustain below 1489$. Then expect good pressure in this precious metal till 1480$- 1470$.

Resistance on gold chart stands at 1508$. If trader break and sustain above 1508$. Then expect good rise in gold price till 1517$- 1527$.

Conclusion: Comex gold trend is in positive for now. Avoid selling till market is sustaining above technical support.

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Brexit is making hard to trade in gold

Gold

Brexit issue is still unsolved and every alternate day we are hearing some news or some rumors about this issue. Every single day we have this time when someone tweets  or says regarding brexit and market throws all technical levels into the dump and react on the news. Its been nearly two weeks we are seeing this constant coverage on Brexit.

It seems England dont want to resolve this issue as every time there is vote or any other formality it result in zero. Even yesterday MP rejected PM’s proposal to conclude the matter in next 7 days or by 31st October. They want to drag this issue and god knows how long we will have to carry this uncertainty.

UK’s PM Borris already cleared that he will propose elections if MP didn’t vote on his proposal. So now we are waiting from his side to announce fresh election. Now UK’s public will feel the heat as elections are costly affair and more importantly there is no deadline when will UK leave the European Union.

For some reasons UK’s politician wants to keep dragging this issue and want to pass the time. They do not have any clear road map what exactly are their demands or why they are stalling the whole process. They just want time and more time.  Now we need to see when Borris announce new election date but I am sure Brexit is not going to solve at least in 2019. So keep an eye on Brexit issue its extremely important factor which is influencing market nowdays.

Gold is trading at 1489$ after making lows near 1480-82$ yesterday. Good support in this precious metal stands at 1480$. If trader breaks and sustain below 1480$. Then expect more pressure in xauusd till 1472$- 1460$.

Resistance in gold chart stands at 1491$. If trader breaks and sustain above 1491$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1499$- 1508$.

Conclusion: Gold market is still facing uncertainty so avoid taking big positions. Keep an eye on world events which may cause market disruption. Nowdays markets are running on news more than technical. Dollar Index which used to be a good indicator of gold also confusing in terms of movement. Its also stuck in a small range since Monday.

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Gold fired after buy signal yesterday

Gold

Comex gold fired after our buy signal from 1498$. Our xauusd signal was in buy from 1498 for target of 1509$. We booked profit at 1507$. Disappointing numbers from US & weak dollar index fueled gold price yesterday. Dow Jones Index also participated after disappointing numbers from US. We also had Wallstreet sell signal from 26460 for target of 26330.

Dow Jones is in good pressure since last week despite good Unemployment rate. DJIA Index also dropped last week and came under pressure. Despite good unemployment rate we had disappointing non far payroll numbers. I always rate non farm payroll numbers best indicators to gauge US economy.

Fed chairman stated in that we might not see any further rate cut this year in his last press conference which he conducted after rate cut. If we dont see any rate cut then FOMC must be confident about US economy in next quarter. We just need to see if fed stays on their words. Last time they cut interest despite saying they wont cut interest rate any more.

US, China talks on trade deal is still in progress and we dont see any major update. We might not see any major deal as far as Trump is concerned. He might not give China any upper hand & Xi Jinping also seems not in mode to bow down to american president. We just need to wait for official confirmation regarding trade deal between Washington & Beijing.

Currently gold is trading at 1507$. Good support in xauusd chart stands 1498$. If trader breaks and sustain below 1498$. Then expect good pressure in gold till 1490$- 1480$.

Good resistance in gold chart stands at 1511$. If trader break and sustain above 1511$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1518$- 1526$.

Conclusion: Comex gold trend is positive for now. Do not sell till our support is sustaining.

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Gold crashed as market heads for a correction

Gold

Comex gold crashing since last week after its peak of 1565$ in first week of September. Since first week of September comex gold is in corrective mode and it was a slow correction last week. Yesterday xauusd took nearly 30$ plunge and gave buyers a big shock as we had a good support around 1470$. Gold is in corrective mode and we may see good base very soon.

Yesterday’s gold crash was not attributed to dollar index strength. We had minor gains in dollar yesterday and even Dow Jones Index was not trading higher. It was later in the day wall street jump to test 27000. Yesterday’s correction was led by sellers and traders who booked profit in their buying from 1300$ odd levels.

Yesterday’s gold correction also led to a speculation that we may have a deal in place. China & US will conclude their talks in October else new tariffs on Chinese goods will kick in. So its make sense to plunge gold before announcement of deal. We just need to wait for official announcements from Washington or Beijing.

Today we have ISM manufacturing data from US & we have Non farm payroll data this Friday with Unemployment rate. I always rate Non farm numbers highest in order to understand US economy. So it will be crucial how these numbers pan out. These numbers will decide the fate of gold price for upcoming weeks.

Currently gold trading at 1462$. Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1455$. If trader break and sustain below 1455$. Then expect good pressure in comex gold till 1450$- 1440$.

Good resistance in gold chart stands at 1476$. If trader break and sustain above 1476$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1482$- 1490$.

Conclusion: Currently gold trend is weak, avoid major buying in this precious metals. Wait for resistance to break in order to initiate buy.

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Gold opened higher after good closing on Friday

Gold

Comex Gold opened higher after good recovery from lows last Friday. Last week gold price moved from 1495$ to 1520$. Friday we seen good buying in gold following crash in Dow Jones. Interestingly I had given buy signal in gold at 1503$ which we booked at 1514$. We sold Wall Street as well at 26090 for target of 25970. Both signal closed on target with profits.

Currently China’s trade war uncertainty is only reason to worry. Iran situation already de-escalated despite attack on Saudi refinery. Its good that Trump refrain himself from fighting Saudi’s war. Its good for world peace. However we have new leader in town UK’s PM. He announced UK will participate if US decide to help Saudi after attack on refinery.

Now we have to follow UK’s PM statement too as he seems another Trump in making. Now we just need to wait how talks between Washington & Beijing pans out. There is no official update on how talks are going. Its just we expect talks should conclude by October end.

Trump has postponed additional tariffs till October but eventually October is coming. We just need to see how positive talks are if there is any. Currently market is counting on uncertainty between two major powers to negotiate.

Currently gold is trading at 1515$. Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1505$. Once trader breaks and sustain below 1505$. Then expect good pressure in comex gold till 1498$- 1490$.

Resistance in gold chart stands at 1525$. If trader breaks and sustain above our resistance. Then expect good rise in gold till 1532$- 1540$.

Conclusion: Counting from uncertainty market is in positive zone and even on chart gold is positive. For now trend is positive so avoid major selling in market. Look to buy in dips. Dollar Index also is in weak zone which is providing boost to gold price.

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Attack on Saudi refinery disrupted market

Attack on Saudi

Attack on Saudi oil refinery disrupted the market as it opened this week. Crude oil fired more than 15% from its last week’s closing. Gold & Silver also opened gap up. Dow Jones Index opened lower. Almost every market was effected by this attack and market reacted heavily on this news. It was later on the day gold, silver cooled off when Trump said we will just assist Saudi & wont participate in their fight.

Gold came down from 1509$ to 1496$ and silver also cooled off a little. Wall Street is still in pressure and still many markets are trading near critical levels. Tomorrow we have FOMC meet outcome. This gonna be very interesting as this time Fed will have pressure from Trump to cut interest rate once again. President Trump is very vocal about higher interest rate by Fed. According to him Fed is resisting US growth.

Earlier this month Trump & Chinese officials suggested we will see some outcome by October end. As of now market dont have any confirmation from either side regarding tariffs. China is playing silent game which is helping them to gain an upper hand in trade war. Trump will seek re election very soon and he has to make this right else he might loose election. We just need to see how this play out in upcoming weeks.

For now comex gold is trading at 1496$. Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1490$. If trader break and manage to sustain below 1490$. Then expect good pressure in comex gold till 1480$- 1470$.

Resistance in comex gold chart stands at 1509$. If trader break and sustain above 1509$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1517$- 1526$.

Conclusion: Comex gold trend is positive as long as its sustaining above 1490$. So avoid selling till market is holding this major levels.

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