Gold volatility

Flip flop statements from US president causing high volatility and wild moves in gold & dollar index. Last week we had 2 contradict statements from President Trump. First he said he will think to deal with China in 2020 only that too after elections. This driven gold in higher gear and xauusd tested 1480-82$ zone.

After 2 days white house release a statement that talks are moving with positive progress and we are very closer to a deal. This dramatically crash the gold nearly 10-12$ from highs and settled gold in 1475$ zone. Then Friday non farm payroll numbers & underemployment rate surprised market which sent shockwave in gold. Comex gold crashed from 1479$ to 1459$ within hours.

Surprised numbers also contradicted with Wednesday’s ADP numbers which were showing negative growth instead positive. This also shows a lack of ability to forecast numbers by some of US federal reserve economists. They virtually have no idea what exactly happening in economy.

This week we have Fed decision on interest rate. Wednesday we will know the outcome as FOMC chairman will conduct a press conference after fed decision on interest rate. There are strong possibilities we wont see any rate hike this year. Fed chairman already cleared we might not see any changes in interest rate anytime anysoon as he is holding monetary policy till major changes in economy.

We also have elections in Britain which would clear the way for Brexit. We should have clarity on Brexit by this year end. Lets see if UK decides to leave Europe or wants to stay with Europe.

Currently gold price is trading at 1461$, Good resistance in gold chart stands at 1464$. If trader breaks and sustain above 1464$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1472$- 1480$.

Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1453$. If trader breaks and sustain below 1453$. Then expect good pressure in gold till 1445$- 1438$.

Conclusion: Currently gold is in weak zone but 1464$ hurdle is good trend reversal point. Follow technical levels.

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By marafat

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