Is better than expected Job numbers enough ?

US Job numbers

Yesterday US posted better than expected job numbers. Market was not expecting any surprise but still job numbers took market by surprise. Even last month US posted better than expected numbers which were a stunner for market. US unemployment rate fallen from 13.3% to 11.1%. Non farm payroll added 4.8M jobs vs 2.6M last month. These astonishing numbers suggests US is recovering very very fast from Covid-19 effects.

Its clear now that we wont see great depression job numbers as many analysts were predicting in March-April. So now question arise, Is better than expected job numbers enough to say US is recovered and now future is bright ? Short answer is NO.

Just yesterday US detected more than 50000 corona virus cases. US biggest multiplex owner AMC postpone to open all cinemas from mid july. Now AMC will open fewer than expected cinemas from mid July. Many states are thinking to roll back restrictions and many already applying lockdowns as I write this piece.

Worldwide covid-19 cases already surpassed 10 millions and still detecting 150K+ cases worldwide. So its not appropriate to say its over. However many countries are going back to normal. NewZealand , South Korea and China already started their daily routine with no or fewer restrictions. So I would conclude its not over yet.

Uncertainty around virus infections and US-China tensions are main driver of gold prices. Even China & India border face off is pushing gold price higher. Despite extra ordinary job numbers gold did not fall because there is extreme uncertainty regarding virus and between US-China-India. These are main driver of gold price.

We still not recovering fast and many countries are clocking highest number of corona virus cases daily including India. So until unless virus cases goes below 100K daily worldwide , I would not be very comfortable. This year we have elections in US. I believe we have more action left in 2020. US elections will be an interesting race between Biden & Trump. So keep an eye on polling numbers as well.

Currently gold is trading at 1776$. Good support in weekly chart stands at 1700$. Once trader break and close gold price below 1700$. Expect more weakness in gold till 1600$ – 1500$.

Resistance in gold chart stands at 1821$. If trader break and close above 1821$ and uncertainty continues. Then expect gold to test 1900$ – 2000$ very soon.

Conclusion: Currently gold is in positive zone as uncertainty rising every single day. However gold will fall and fall would be very hard only if virus vaccine appears or cases fall below recovery rate for 1-2 weeks.

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Tricky Job numbers will decide the course of 2020

Tricky US Jobs Numbers

Tomorrow US unemployment rate are due. Last month job numbers surprised the market and gave a shock when it came 13.3% vs 17.5%. It boosted confidence of market as dow jones literally fired more than 2000 points after that. Covid-19 resulted unemployment rate from 3.6% in march to 14.7% in May. Many analysts were expecting to test great depression levels and predicted even worse ( including me ). But job numbers surprised everyone and now its cooling down dramatically.

Tomorrow’s job numbers will be very crucial as we will be seeing actual job numbers post covid 19 . One major worry is second wave of corona virus. US still clocking more than 35000 cases per day and total cases stands more than 2.7 million. More than 130k american died due to corona virus. Many job started imposing more restrictions and many are talking about lockdown once again.

If US plans or go ahead with lockdown once again then unemployment may rise once again and we may see more pain in businesses. Many countries including US is still battling with rising covid 19 cases. Many analysts are predicting that lockdowns may occur once again. More lockdowns will result in more pain in businesses and more jobs may disappear for years.

Another factor is US & China. It seems election will be interesting this year as Trump is blaming China for his mishandling of virus. As usual China is also not sitting quiet and warning for consequences if Trump try to overplay his hand. China & India also in a standoff and recently India banned more than 55 chinese apps. This could be start of a mini trade war if both countries dont sort out their matter soon.

Currently gold is trading at 1787$. Good resistance on weekly chart stands at 1827$. If trader break and close above 1827$. Then expect good rise and fresh buying till 1900$ – 2000$ very soon.

Support in gold price stands at 1700$. If trader break and close below 1700$. Then expect good selling till 1620$ – 1500$ very soon.

Conclusion: Gold is riding on uncertainties of corona virus & US, China standoff. Technically its in positive zone.

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Worst is yet to come in Markets

Worst is yet to come

World economies started to re opening and gradually they are trying to go back to pre covid 19 situations. Slowly many countries are relaxing lock down norms and opening their factories. Some countries such as UAE started opening their Malls as well. However according to me and many analysts in market, we have still not seen the worst. While some countries are relaxing lock down in phase manners. India & other countries are still not able to flatten the curve.

We will certainly relaxation in lock down after May. While these relaxations are mandatory now as many countries have no choice but to open for business. This could lead to second wave of virus cases. We may see even more severe cases once second wave hits.

We did not even discuss economic disasters yet. While world went in lock down mode in March. Real outcome & repercussion of this lock down will be visible from July. Many companies will start posting how they did in second quarter. Many companies may shut or file for bankruptcy. Many may go for job cuts as well.

In US nearly 38 million americans already filed for unemployment claims. In may beginning unemployment rate was 14.5%. Job numbers are due next week which can be from 15% to 19%. Real depression had unemployment rate of 24.9% and we are not far from those numbers.

Germany & UK already entered in recession while many countries will join the recession in upcoming months. Now main question will be, is there a recession in 2020 or depression. We might get very near to depression and it will be devastating in today’s time. So again worst is yet to come.

There is a silver lining in all this chaos. The gold price, gold will be one of the beneficiary in this  economic recession. We may see many good high jumps and big swings in upcoming months. Currently gold is trading near 1720$. According to fundamental analysis we may see 1900$ – 2000$ by next June or July. These targets may come even early while downside is limited. I will cover this in upcoming posts.

Conclusion: Brace for more impact and get ready for worse recession than 2008.

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Gold looking to test new lifetime high in 2020

Gold forecast

Gold is trading in a roller coaster since few weeks. Even last week gold tested 1710$ after making lows of 1679$. Xauusd settled below 1700$ at Friday’s closing. Spot gold ruined many traders in past with its 50-60$ move in single day. Last Friday gold higher move came when Dow Jones lost more than 500 points from its day’s peak.

Dow Jones crashed after US posted another big Unemployment claim numbers. US already showed heavy decline in personal spending and income. Which is a concern for long term. Next week we have Unemployment rate which may shoot from 4.4% to 14-16% . This could hamper dow jones recovery chances even more and may send gold on frenzy mode. Another lifetime high near 2000$ for gold not ruled out.

Major reason of gold higher price is declining job numbers and economic growth around the world. This Corona Virus pandemic situation has caught all vulnerable off guards and we will see devastating numbers in next 3-4 quarters. This is major reason I am bullish on gold for 2020. I will change my forecast if technical chart changes and economies shows some better growth than expected.

For now major focus will be on Unemployment rate. Many analysts are predicting from 14-16% unemployment rate. Which is not far from great depression’s rate of 25%. In great depression 25% of americans were unemployed. So we are not very far from great depression numbers and its gonna get worse before recovery.

Currently gold stayed below 1700$/oz which is a bit weak on weekly charts. But a good support in spot gold chart stands at 1640$. If trader breaks and close below this base. Then expect good pressure in gold till 1600$- 1550$.

Resistance in gold stands at 1731$. If xauusd break and close above 1731$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1770$- 1800$.

Conclusion Fundamentally & Technically gold is in positive zone. Avoid selling this precious metals. If you wish to scalp in sell then trade with strict stop loss.

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Are we heading towards depression ?

Depression in 2020 – 2021 ?

Are we heading towards depression in 2020 or 2021 ? Well simple answer is Yes and No. We may see major recession and that is inevitable now. World cannot go without recession in 2020 – 2021 that is for sure. How severe is the recession that is another topic altogether.

Last week itself US unemployment rate lost 4 year gains and settled at 2017 levels. More than 6 million US citizens filed for Unemployment claims. These numbers would surely hike as this data was last recorded in March 12th 2020. So this week Thursday’s number of claims will be higher for sure. How high are these numbers would give an idea how US economy is handling the pressure of partial lock down. 7 states out of 50 are yet to implement any advisory to close non essential and work from home.

Currently US is number 1 in corona virus cases with more than 333000 cases. Death toll also reaching near 10000. While many states are running out of ventilators and hospital beds. US president may or may not go for partial opening this easter. This could make things even worse and ultimately it will show in numbers.

Currently we are in unofficial recession as many countries yet to report their GDP numbers. However mounting virus cases & already stand still economy may just got worse before going for a recovery. Now for now there is no solid depression signs but recession will be severe and it would be worse than 2008 & 2000.

I am not ruling out depression but we are far from depression. We will need to asses the situation maybe in August – October to take a call if we are going into depression. But we cannot rule out depression yet. For now we can just estimate how world economies are going to hit and how many jobs are going to vanish in this kind of economies.

For gold its always a good time when stock markets are and economies are doing bad. Good close above 1680-90$ might give gold a chance to test 1800$ – 2000$ very soon but a slide recovery in stocks or economies may be very lethal for gold buyers. So stick with levels.

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Corona Virus impacted stocks & gold both

Corona Virus impact on gold & stock market

Dow Jones ( DJIA ) Index tested 18900 levels this week after a high of nearly 30000 this year. This makes total correction of more than 30% in less than 2 months. Gold also crashed from 1700$ to 1450$. Dollar Index was also in free fall mode in first 2 weeks of march. Dollar recently started to surge and made high above 100.

Corona virus impact on US economy is very severe as Fed reduced interest rate from 2.5% to 0 in less than a month. Additional $1 trillion stimulus package also announced for market. ECB also announced $500 billion package for European markets to reduce the impact of virus on economy. Canada also announced measure to tackle the impact and offering rents, taxes discount for 1-2 months.

Currently we are in stage 2 of pandemic in most of the countries and if virus advances in stage 3 then we will have even more problem. Stage 2 caused nearly 30% correction in world market. Stage 3 will create havoc in entire world. Italy is fighting with stage 3 epidemic. Its also in lockdown. Many countries announced lockdown to control the virus impact on economies & their people.

Crude oil also tested new 18 year low when market crashed below 21$ this week. Saudi & Russian oil war with corona virus impact on economy is bankrupting oil companies slowly. Many oil companies in US started feeling the heat. President Trump announced last night he will be interfering in oil war between Saudi & Russia. Which gave much needed 20% respite to crude oil prices.

Currently gold price is trading at 1504$. Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1481$. If trader breaks and sustain below 1481$. Then expect more pressure in gold till 1470$- 1460$.

Good resistance in gold chart stands at 1521$. If trader break and sustain above 1521$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1540$- 1560$ and even more recovery in gold not ruled out.

Conclusion: Covid-19 virus impact is clearly seen on markets around the world. Stay cautious and trade with extremely tight stop loss. Current range of market is too big to trade for retail traders. However our gold signals package already delivered nearly $2500 profit per lot in this March so far. You can join my gold signals package. Just Whatsapp at +91-9920315014 for details

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Corona Virus troubled gold & stock market

Corona Virus Impact on Gold Prices

Last week Gold tumbled nearly 100$ from its peak level of 1690$. Gold crashed from 1690$ to test 1570$ last Friday. Xauusd finally managed to close at 1585$ giving a mild relief to buyers. However this gold crash despite 10% cut in US stock market. Dollar Index also faced the wrath of sellers as it also declined nearly 9% from its peak.

Stock markets crashed around the world as COVID-19 grips more countries and more patients has been tested positive with virus. Major companies like Hyundai had to halt its production while Samsung also closed its mobile production unit as South Korea is worst hit after China.

Currently there are more than 80000 patients suffering from Corona Virus & more than 3000 deaths has been reported by this virus. Iran also reporting more and more cases daily and there are rumors that Iran is under reporting its covid-19 cases. Currently WHO denied to tag this virus as Pandemic but many experts are saying it has already become Pandemic.

Gold losing 100$ from its peak as major margin clicked due to extremely sharp sell off in dow jones & other stock markets. I assume funds and major investors had to liquidate their gold position in order to pay margin calls. Which also triggered major selling in precious metals.

Saturday we seen worst manufacturing numbers posted by China. It was obvious that China’s manufacturing will be hit as many cities are still in lock down but numbers were even scarier. Due to bad numbers from China gold opened gap up but how it will sustain is another matter.

Non farm payroll & Unemployment rate will be out this Friday from US. If job numbers are not good then we may see more sinking in Dow Jones which could bump the gold prices from lows.

For now gold is trading at 1598$. Good support in precious metal stands at 1588$. If trader break and sustain below 1588$. Then expect more pressure in xauusd till 1580$- 1570$.

Good resistance in xauusd chart stands at 1620$. If trader break and sustain above 1620$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1631$- 1642$.

Conclusion: Due to last week’s massive cut in gold price it has entered in weak zone. So avoid major buying till resistance is intact in market.

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Gold made highs with Dollar Index

Gold

Comex Gold made high above 1613$ last night breaking its last month high of 1611.50$. Last month gold made high when US assassinated an Iranian commander. Iran then retaliated by attacking US base in Iraq. After that Trump tried to tone things down and gold crashed from 1611$ to test 1541$. Till February 1st week gold was trading in a narrow trading zone and on every high it was making lows near 1548- 1540$ range.

This week we have seen one of the most unprecedented rise in gold prices despite a new yearly high in dollar index. Its a rare scenario that gold & dollar test yearly highs same day. Major rise in dollar index is due to its biggest contributor ( euro ). Eur/Usd testing new yearly highs which is boosting dollar and driving dollar higher. While Coronavirus fear in market driving gold prices higher.

By closing above 1600$ last night we have given highest closing of the year. This could lead to higher targets in upcoming months. However I still conclude that we need to close above 1612-1614$ in order to resume buying for major target of 2000$. However a crash from these levels will be lethal for buyers and we may see major downside of 100-120$ levels if xauusd fails to close above 1614$.

For now gold price is trading at 1609$. Good support in intraday gold chart stands at 1598$. If trader break and sustain below 1598$. Then expect good pressure in xauusd till 1590$- 1581$.

Good resistance in intraday gold stands at 1614$. If trader breaks and sustain above 1614$. Then expect good rise in comex gold till 1620$- 1629$.

Conclusion: We are in very crucial range and this range will decide the fate of gold for upcoming months. A close above 1614$ may open door for $1700 & $1800 this year. However if market slips below 1598$ then expect a good correction in precious metal pack.

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Gold crashed as Stock market recovered from lows

Gold

Spot gold price crashed yesterday from 1579$ to 1548$. We were in sell from 1575.20$ as my sell signal initiated on this level. We booked profit at 1566.20 & made nearly $900 profit per lot in yesterday’s gold trade. Major crash in gold was sponsored by higher dollar index & world stock markets. Dow Jones recovered nearly 400 points from lows fueling sell in precious metals.

Coronavirus concerns were also sidelined yesterday as market took a breather due to good numbers from US. Main strength came from China’s stock market which closed 1.5% up after nearly 8% fall on Monday. This gave good confidence and buyers returned in equities and gold faced good profit booking from higher levels.

Gold even broke 1550$ and tested 1548$ before recovering till 1560$. I have mentioned in my weekly video on youtube that 1548$ is a very crucial level which may be a trend decider if market close below 1548$.

This week we have major data from US. Non farm payroll & Unemployment numbers will be very crucial this Friday. If jobs numbers are positive and better than forecast then we may see an uptick in dow jones which may result another round of selling in xauusd.

Weak job numbers may fuel gold price higher and we may test 1600$ range once again. A weekly closing above 1600$ would give another positive chapter to gold buyer.

For now gold prices are trading in 1555$ zone. Good resistance in xauusd chart stands at 1564$. If trader breaks and sustain above 1564$. Then expect good rise in gold till 1572$ – 1580$.

Support in gold chart stands at 1548$. If trader tank this base and manage to sustain below 1548$. Then expect good crash in xauusd till 1540$- 1532$.

Conclusion: Comex gold trend is in weak zone due to yesterday’s crashing. Above 1564$ we may see buyers returning in precious metals. Else we will see more fall. Only saving grace is 1548$. Below this level we may see another bloodbath in gold prices and sellers may have upper hand in market.

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Davos meeting come with Chaos in Market

Gold forecast

Yesterday when i was making video for my youtube channel gold was trading at 1566$. Just in 6-7 hours gold crashed from 1567$ to test 1546$. A good 21$ crash without any major reason or announcement. We had a sell in gold as i gave a sell gold signal at 1559$ for target at 1549$. We closed our gold position with profit. However gold did not sustain on lower levels and fired back to test 1559$.

In less than 12 hours xauusd crashed from 1566$ to 1546$ then fired back at 1559$. It was one hell of a day for gold traders as many positions got butchered by this wild move & many traders panicked to take positions with crash and with sudden rise in market.

I have already cleared in my weekly video Davos meet come with major volatility. Yesterday was only first day and we may see extreme volatility till Friday as World Economic Forum proceeds further.

Yesterday even dollar index behaved very wild. Dow jones also participated in this mayhem and butchered major positions to reduce the open position figure by the end of the day. We have 3 more days before WEF conclude in Davos. So i would advise to trade with extremely tight stop loss and trade low qty.

For now gold price is trading at 1552$. Good support in xauusd chart stands at 1544$. If trader break and sustain below 1544$. Then expect good pressure in gold till 1535$- 1525$.

Gold resistance stands at 1561$. If trader break and sustain above 1561$. Then expect good rise in xauusd till 1570$ – 1580$.

Conclusion: Currently gold trend is weak. Avoid buying in this precious metal till market sustaining below our resistance. Avoid trading big lots this week as volatility may increase in upcoming days.

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