Tricky US Jobs Numbers

Tomorrow US unemployment rate are due. Last month job numbers surprised the market and gave a shock when it came 13.3% vs 17.5%. It boosted confidence of market as dow jones literally fired more than 2000 points after that. Covid-19 resulted unemployment rate from 3.6% in march to 14.7% in May. Many analysts were expecting to test great depression levels and predicted even worse ( including me ). But job numbers surprised everyone and now its cooling down dramatically.

Tomorrow’s job numbers will be very crucial as we will be seeing actual job numbers post covid 19 . One major worry is second wave of corona virus. US still clocking more than 35000 cases per day and total cases stands more than 2.7 million. More than 130k american died due to corona virus. Many job started imposing more restrictions and many are talking about lockdown once again.

If US plans or go ahead with lockdown once again then unemployment may rise once again and we may see more pain in businesses. Many countries including US is still battling with rising covid 19 cases. Many analysts are predicting that lockdowns may occur once again. More lockdowns will result in more pain in businesses and more jobs may disappear for years.

Another factor is US & China. It seems election will be interesting this year as Trump is blaming China for his mishandling of virus. As usual China is also not sitting quiet and warning for consequences if Trump try to overplay his hand. China & India also in a standoff and recently India banned more than 55 chinese apps. This could be start of a mini trade war if both countries dont sort out their matter soon.

Currently gold is trading at 1787$. Good resistance on weekly chart stands at 1827$. If trader break and close above 1827$. Then expect good rise and fresh buying till 1900$ – 2000$ very soon.

Support in gold price stands at 1700$. If trader break and close below 1700$. Then expect good selling till 1620$ – 1500$ very soon.

Conclusion: Gold is riding on uncertainties of corona virus & US, China standoff. Technically its in positive zone.

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By marafat