Gold prices crashed from 1832$ to test 1680$ in less than a week. If you have watched my weekly gold analysis on youtube channel. You must be knowing 1670$ was an extremely important support. ( watch video here )
Last week US posted excellent job numbers. Unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.4% well below expectations of 5.7%. Non farm payroll came 943K vs 938K previous month. Both job figures crushed from from 1832$ to test 1760$. XauUsd closed around 1760$ last Friday.
Gold opened lower this Monday and made low of 1680$ before recovering from lows. Yellow metal faced wrath of sellers as market started anticipating that FOMC will start tapering earlier than expected. US bond yields also started upside tick which hampered gold chances to recover.
So is it over for bulls ? Or we may see dead cat bounce in gold prices in upcoming months ?
FOMC members were agreeing to reduce monthly buying according to latest FOMC minutes. However many members were reluctant for increase in interest rate this year or even early next year.
Another debacle is Afghanistan. American troops left Afghanistan & Taliban recaptured the country. China & Russian gave hint to recognize Taliban. This could open another pandora box & may end up increasing already stressed relationship between Beijing & Washington.
Currently gold ( xauusd ) price set at 1780$. A psychological level at 1800$ & major resistance at 1805$ is hurdle between buyers & sellers. Spot gold needs to break & close above 1805$ in order to return to positive zone.
We have good reasons to believe we may see good opportunity in gold buying in upcoming months. But fundamental reasons needs to be supportive by charts as well. So I will advise all yellow metal buyers to exercise restraint till gold is not closing above 1805$.
Once gold manage to close above 1805$ then we may see good opportunity to test upto 1900$ or even more upside in yellow metal prices not ruled out.
A major support and stands at 1670$ this level respected thrice by gold prices & now stands as major support. Once this level is breach and gold manage to close below this level then expect gold price to test upto 1620$ & 1550$.
Gold prices are in middle of storm. Currently hovering between 1780$ & 1790$. Once comex gold breaks and close above 1805$ we may see spurt movements to test upto 1850$ & 1900$. However tapering & interest rate hikes are just one scenario. Growing economy & recovery in jobs market is also there to stop the prices. If gold breaks & close below 1670$ then we may see mayhem upto 1600$ & even 1500$ is also possible.
My take: Go with levels fundamentals will follow soon
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