Gold Forecast

Gold prices crashed after making highs of 2075$ last year. This year gold tested 1670$ and bounced back after making a good double bottom. Currently gold price trading at 1780$. So are we ripped for new higher moves in upcoming weeks or we will crash again to test new lows in upcoming weeks ? Lets find out.

Interestingly Unemployment rate is crashing fast and its down from double digit to respected 6% in March. US also adding enough number of jobs which is a good sign for economy. However US bond yield is what causing worry despite Fed’s assurance that they wont increase interest rate before 2023.

US bond yield is still rising with steady pace. Fed already suggested that even if US economy recovers completely they will not raise interest rate which is nearly zero now.

Since pandemic started US gave several relief package which resulted in mounting debt. US debt is highest since world war II and its going to rise even more as president biden prepares for infrastructure bill now. Rising debt could hamper US growth which could literally limit no growth at all for several years. We need to asses the situation once US economy reaches pre covid levels in upcoming months years.

Before April 2021 we thought corona virus pandemic is almost over. That is when India hit by second wave of corona virus and recording more than 300K new infections every day. Despite two vaccines available in country world’s 5th largest economy is struggling to keep infections in control. This resulted in partial lockdown in country which could further hamper growth of India.

India is also 5th largest economy and it could send tremor to other part of the world as well. Almost every central bank of world awarded stimulus package to their goverments which distributed to businesses and people to cope up with devastating lockdowns which resulted in major business loss.

We are far from over and stimulus package debt could come to haunt us soon, which will be a positive for gold. Interestingly gold entered in positive zone on charts as well.

Currently gold is trading at 1780$. Good support in gold price stands at 1720$. If traders breaks and close below 1720$ then expect xauusd to test upto 1670$ – 1620$ very soon.

Good resistance in gold chart stands at 1830$. If traders break and close above 1830$ then expect gold prices to hit further upto 1870$ – 1900$.

Conclusion: Rising debts and technical chart suggest gold is ripped for new higher moves. So plan accordingly.

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By marafat