Vaccine diffused gold buyers

From August’s high of 2074$ spot gold price crashed till 1761$. A sweet 15% cut in gold price from August till November. Main reason behind this 15% cut is vaccine progress and continuous decline in jobless numbers around the world. Pfizer, Moderna, and many other pharmaceuticals have announced their vaccine are 92-95% effective to prevent corona virus. Yesterday Moderna already requested clearance for its coronavirus vaccine in the US & Europe.

Gold fired from March’s low 1450$ to 2074$ in August. It took less than 4 months to clock 40% gains in gold prices. It took nearly 3 months to correct 15% from August high. US unemployment rate is also falling which is pressuring gold prices. In September Unemployment rate was 7.7% while in October Unemployment rate was 6.9%. From double digit to nearly Pre covid levels of 5% unemployment rate in less than 6 months.

Economies are also going back to pre covid levels and even equity markets are testing new lifetime highs. After vaccine news Dow Jones & other US indices tested new lifetime highs which made sure gold price fall further. Dollar Index also showing good strength in order to weaken the gold prices.

US elections concluded and finally Joe Biden has won which is another check box in gold price list. US election was an uncertainty which was driving gold prices higher since July. Trump was reluctant to give power to Joe Biden and alleged elections fraud after election result. But last week he also almost conceded which gave equity a push that power transition will be smooth. Another bad sign for gold as power transition uncertainty ends there.

Gold last hope was stimulus package as Trump suggested he will look into it after elections are over. Its been nearly 1 month and there is no talk of stimulus. I feel we will see some stimulus package when Joe Biden enters in office. That could be a push which may send gold price roaring again.

For now gold price has entered in weak zone and continuing its dry run. Gold resistance stands at 1860$. If trader breaks and manage to close above this level. Then expect good rise in gold upto 1900$ – 1950$ once again.

Gold support stands at 1745$. If trader break and manage to close below this level. Then expect further correction in gold upto 1700$ – 1650$.

Conclusion: Current gold suggests further weakness unless there is some news. So avoid going for buy till market is not closing above 1860$.

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By marafat

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